Lawrence Yun,PhD, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors, spoke at a luncheon for the Williamson County Association of Realtors. Dr. Yun specializes in statistics and economic forecasting. He ranks in the top 5 of economic forecasters in the country, and we were fortunate to have him speak to our group. He reiterated many of the principals we know.
Dr. Yun emphasized that " all real estate is local." Just as one could not reliably state that the average temperature in the United States is 57 degrees; so one cannot realistically say that the real estate market is increasing/decreasing a certain percentage nationwide. We all know that many factors influence value. i.e. location, condition, curb appeal,style, etc.
Dr. Yun addressed the issues of sub-prime loans and the increase in foreclosures. The sub-prime market is 9% of existing loans, and many of the buyers were in default BEFORE the rates were reset. Certain areas of the country that experienced heightened activities by investor/flippers have been the hardest hit. Many of these individuals were working with OPM (other people's money), and had planned on quick resales at higher prices. Then the market changed on them. Now, many are willing to walk away from their financial obligations since they only take a hit on their credit scores. Thus, we see vacant condos, single family dwellings, etc. Wall Street participated in the housing bubble. When the gamble did not pay, we saw the huge loss write downs for past lending mistakes. We can expect additional write-downs. It's not over yet.
The good news according to Dr. Yun is that homes in Mid-America are under-priced. There are several positives for the Nashville area : job gains are accelerating, rising exports help our economy, we have consistent job growth, affordable home prices, and historically low interest rates.
Dr. Yun expects the second half of 2008 to be improved with more access to FHA loans. We can anticipate a "honeymoon" period after the 2008 election, and 2009 should be back to higher levels of real estate activity. Buyers should have a long term horizon for their home purchase. Historically homes tend to double in value every 10 years. Real estate can be a prudent investment leading to an accumulation of wealth. With increased choices and historically low interest rates this is a good time to buy.